12/7 Weekly Macro Note: Big Central Bank Week - Cuts & Hikes, Upcoming Week Preview, Job Openings Trends
In this Weekly Macro Note - we discuss the big central bank week, talk about the employment data ahead with job openings trends, a new potential daily briefing, and more.
Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), Chief Economist
Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,
Following up to our very late (or early am) Redeye Macro Note - we’ve got a lot of ground to cover in the Weekly Macro Note. This week is going to be an important one from a central bank standpoint - and it will set the tone for 2026 from a monetary policy standpoint. While the consensus continues to be overweight on next year being one for continued major easing - commodity and inflation risks are bubbling - which we covered yesterday evening. Fiscal policy remains extremely loose and pro-asset / inflation right now under the ‘run it hot’ regime, and at some point this policy is going to backfire further on those who have decided that 3% is a more acceptable CPI YoY rate of change than 2%.
As discussed yesterday evening - we’re looking at potentially introducing a very short daily briefing to all of our community members & readers, which will provide an overview of some interesting data and charts for the day to be aware of.
Flows - especially into ETFs and thru leverage - continue to push into markets - and the FOMC policy stance setting this week is going to determine a lot in Q1.
Chart of the day — latest update to heavy truck sales data:
While we don’t need to beat a dead horse after the central bank policy discussion early this morning - we’ll again review the likely moves this week and next for those that missed the Redeye Macro Note. We’ll also discuss the technical overview for the broad indices (NQ/ES), look further into the commodity surge, talk about the Dollar Index performance, policymaking this week, employment & bankruptcy data, and more.
Upcoming Week Preview
> Tuesday: JOLTS
> Wednesday: FOMC Rate Announcement
December Monthly Ozone Pro Report Overview & Portfolio Strategy Update
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Technical Overview / Review - Bonds & Equities
Nasdaq near all-time highs (NQ)
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