5/27 Weekly Macro Note: Fiscal Pullbacks, Softening Macro, BBB the new PPP, Lessons from History

In this Weekly Memorial Day Macro Note - the team dives into the latest fiscal trends, looks at the 'Big Beatiful Bill', touches on historical lessons - and much more. #MacroEdge

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This Monday evening I’ve made a late return home and with weather in the Southeast didn’t return until past 1am. As a result, and with the holiday, we’ll have out a longer Midweek Macro Note on Wednesday to dissect the week and look at what’s ahead as we turn the corner into June and wind down the second quarter.

Looking forward to a great month of June with you all.

– Don

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MacroEdge Vision Update May 26, 2025 (@SixFinance, MacroEdge Head of Research)

Hoping everyone had a wonderful long weekend. I’m at Disney with my family this week so I will keep it short and sweet tonight. 

There’s a potential tactical inflection I’m watching closely on the fiscal side. We saw Trump very rapidly capitulate on EU tariffs as soon as the “big beautiful bill” hit a snag in the Senate, and I’m finding it increasingly likely that the status quo must be maintained through the passing of the bill. From there, that’s where things can get interesting, and the political need to keep the spigot open diminishes. The risk here is a shift from bipartisan stimulus bargaining to unilateral belt-tightening. With the fiscal sword no longer dangling over markets, the White House may finally feel free to signal discipline again, especially with real rates still elevated and the 2026 midterms taking shape.