5/4 Weekly Macro Note: Back in the Zone

In this Weekly Macro Note - we explore MacroEdge updates, what's ahead in May for macro data, earnings, and employment -- review April employment data, discuss technicals, and more.

Back in the Zone (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community, 

The last few days you may have noticed myself and some of our team members being more quiet than usual, through our usual channels, but we had a wonderful time hosting here in Florida during Formula 1 weekend. It’s a nice time for us to disconnect for a long weekend and get back in an ultra-focused mode to continue delivering excellence for years to come. As we continue to expand MacroEdge, as well as our other entities, weekends like this are important in connecting with both current and future customers – as I am a firm believer in the power of what we might now call ‘old-fashioned’ face-to-face interactions. That said, we’ll have a brief Weekly Macro Note this evening ‘Back in the Zone’ on the state of markets – notably employment and equity markets – and highlight what we’re looking out for this week now that we’re somehow already in May. 

We’ve executed our forecasting this year with surgeon-like precision - first with the large 25-30% equity drawdown seen in March & April, and then with the substantial retrace that materialized taking equities back to the ‘seen of the crime’ – or Liberation Day tariff announcement. Things are likely to downshift into a holding pattern until we now get more clarity on tariffs, earnings, and macro data in the next several months – but by July we are expecting a resumption of a broader downside move spurred by the original break of the weekly uptrend from 2023 - 2024 that we defined as the ‘blowoff’. In this brief Weekly Macro Note we’ll dive into: 

> May MacroEdge Report Schedule 

> Macro Data This Week

> Trident 

> April Employment Data 

> Technical View 

> What’s Next

On Thursday evening, after the Midweek Macro Note on Wednesday, we’ll have a full MacroEdge offering update – including a note about Trident.

May MacroEdge Report Schedule 

> Every Wednesday: Midweek Macro Note, Vision Note 

> Every Friday: Redeye Macro Note 

> Every Sunday: Weekly Macro Note, Vision Note

*RESights Reports on the last Sunday of every month, or every other month, depending on the importance of available data 

*Special reports may be released at any time 

Macro Data This Week

Monday - ISM Services

Tuesday - Trade Balance 

Wednesday - FOMC Rate Decision, Consumer Credit

Thursday - Claims, Labor Costs

Friday - N/A

Earnings: BRK.B, PLTR, AMD, ARM 

Trident

Learn more about our private global macro fund in development - focused on capitalizing on substantial inflection points in both major asset classes and individual securities - by submitting a contact form through the link below. We’re delivering on a high-concentration investment philosophy focused on critical market inflection points and left-tail events. Much more in a full post coming shortly on Trident…

Accredited investors only. SEC 506(C) Reg D

Get everything from MacroEdge, including our next Midweek Report, and more below with two week access to MacroEdge Ozone:

April Employment Data 

Employment figures continued their broader weakening trend in April - and things have continued to soften since the Fed began tightening back in March of 2022. What we saw after the easing cycle last year was a brief rebound in some of the labor figures - and many of us continue to scratch our heads here at why the Fed even cut in the first place last year… political? The tariff impacts - which largely have still not been felt - are not baked into employment data - and should be again in the next several months.