8/10 Weekly Macro Note: AMPM - Assets Melting Up Permanently?, Populist Threat, Nuclear Energy Update

In this Weekly Macro Note, we dive into the continued broad asset rally, discuss the populist threat, provide an update on nuclear energy, and much more. #MacroEdge

AMPM: Assets Melting Up Permanently? (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community,

Another week closes with markets running on a combination of loose monetary policy expectations, political urgency, and retail speculation. The labor market continues to cool, data credibility is eroding, and the midterm shot clock is ticking. Instead of caution, the Administration is pouring fuel on the fire as the Big Beautiful Bill ramps into full gear through Q3 and Q4, making asset prices the primary scorecard for economic health.

They say ‘too much good stuff’ at AMPM, but I am starting to think the terminology holds new meaning for this Administration. The week holds some important data ahead, along with a few important earnings, and that will make it an interesting week. The CPI report is likely to confirm or greatly cloud the current odds of a September rate cut, which have looked more and more likely seen in the cool July labor market report. This evening will have a brief report and cover much more ground/updates in our Wednesday Midweek Macro Note. Until then, I’ll be venturing back on the plane early in the morning back to home base, and there’s a whole lot to get done this week with the team.

The 10-Year Is Just Sitting ThereYields finished the week in a range that is providing little clarity to either bulls or bears. The 4.50 percent level remains the policy red zone for the Fed and Treasury, but softness in recent data has pulled yields down slightly. The key risk ahead is the CPI print this week. Any upside surprise will challenge the September cut narrative and could reintroduce volatility to the long end of the curve.