MacroEdge 12/5 Midweek Report: NFP Preview + Midweek Macro & Vision Commentary

In this NFP preview - the MacroEdge Team covers our November employment outlook, discussion on the next steps for MacroEdge, & Six provides a MacroEdge Vision update. #MacroEdge

NFP Preview + Midweek Macro (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Thursday evening MacroEdge community, 

This evening we’ll take a quick look at our November employment preview before our comprehensive MacroEdge Labor Market Report on Sunday, which will be delivered alongside the RESights Report. Current consensus for November and our view is to see an improvement in the employment data from the October report - but we’re not seeing a robust labor rebound in the intra-month data - particularly in job cuts & job postings, tracked live by Indeed Hiring Lab. Without these key rebound signals in the labor market, the labor market remains in a holding pattern due to Federal Reserve tightening and a rebound in the 10Y, along with maximum employment, which has seen hiring slow sharply since the Federal Reserve began tightening. 

Job cuts registered their fourth highest November since 2008, in a sign that we’re not yet seeing job cut pressures ease. While we continue to see low claims figures, we’re now attributing this to unemployment payments falling well below the necessary threshold to meet cost of basic living standards in 2024. While some may opt to file for UI, many simply opt for their severance and 1099-NEC work, or other forms of part-time employment while they wait to rejoin the workforce. While unemployment is still low by historical norms, it is still well above the cycle low, and continued labor market pressures cannot be ignored. We’ll discuss more on November below. This all coupled with valuations at atmospheric levels signals that it’s worth continuing to exercise caution around the labor market unless we meet key thresholds for signs of labor restrengthening such as: 

• U3 unemployment < 4.1% 

• Rebound in job openings 

• Decrease in state-level unemployment rates 

This weekend we will have the latest updates and progress to the refreshed MacroEdge Vision as well as expected product developments for 2025 with RESights - for the data dashboard, several new partnerships in the works, and our timeline for MacroEdge TV. We’ll also have the latest macro data in the Redeye Report. Lots & lots of exciting things in the work. MacroEdge One - encompassing all of our data, macro research,  and investment research can be accessed for two weeks using the below link:

Tonight we’ll cover the:

> November Employment Preview 

• Job Cuts & Layoffs

• Job Postings 

• Historical November patterns for employment 

• November thoughts

Let’s dive into the data below.