MacroEdge 1/26 RESights Report: The Real Estate Outlook Under Trump

In this RESights Report - our team dives into our real estate (primarily residential) outlook under Trump 47. #RESights

Good Sunday evening MacroEdge Readers and Community, 

This evening in our final RESights Report of January, we’ll cover some of the trends at the macro level in the residential real estate sector that Trump is inheriting. The real estate sector experienced broad tumult in 2024 - with default rates rising in spaces like office and multifamily - while the residential side of things can be summed up by two words…: low volume. Median prices remained mostly flat in the Sunbelt, with some markets declining, particularly in Florida and Texas where inventory has ticked higher. Overall, Trump is inheriting a real estate activity recession (one of the worst on record), especially looking at metrics like existing sales per capita, and there are a few ways in which Trump policies could impact how this sector functions through 2025. We’ll kick off the final RESights Report in January with a macro breakdown of the following conditions that Trump is inheriting in the residential real estate sector: 

• Existing Home Sales

• New Home Sales 

• Total Construction

• Construction and Real Estate Sector Employment 

• Architecture Billings Index (AIA) 

• Multifamily Situation 

• Residential Housing Stocks and Outlook 

• The MacroEdge Outlook for Residential Real Estate Under Trump 

Let’s dive in, shall we? 

Critical Points Discussed:

• Historic Lows in Sales and Demand: The residential real estate market ended 2024 at record-low existing home sales per capita, with affordability challenges, high mortgage rates, and stagnant price growth keeping demand subdued despite rising inventory levels.

• Rental Market Struggles Amid Oversupply: A surge in housing completions and speculative overbuilding has driven rent disinflation and record-low occupancy in both multifamily and single-family rentals, with demographic trends further dampening demand.

• Affordability and Speculation Distort the Market: Affordability challenges and speculative activity, particularly in short-term rentals, have led to oversupply and weakened market fundamentals, challenging the narrative of structural undersupply.

• Trump Administration and 2025 Outlook: The Trump presidency inherits a deeply strained real estate market, with construction activity and demand under pressure. Policy decisions and market awareness of speculative excess will be pivotal in shaping the recovery trajectory.