Midweek Macro Note: Back on the 10Y 'Growth Scare' Tightrope, Firing Powell, Equity Market Remains Admin Focus, Tariff & Inflation Review, Vision Note

In this Midweek Macro Note, we cover the latest inflation and employment data - highlight signs of distribution and divergences in equity price action, talk the bond market, and much more.

Good Wednesday evening MacroEdge Readers & Community,

I still find myself on Pacific Time - which explains the later-than-usual releases of our various Macro Notes. In the overnight hours, yields are again moving higher, alongside equities which are up slightly, and crypto which is flat to down. There is a lot to digest this week as we move towards and through FOMC week - where we’re likely to see a continuation of a rate pause through the Summer, and then the discussion will be about whether or not the Fed will move in September given the movement in the long end. We’ve made note of the 10Y in the intervention level of the current Administration being somewhere between 4.5 and 4.7% on the 10Y and that remains the case for the foreseeable future as the long-end remains a risk factor for things like equity market valuations and the housing market, which from an activity standpoint - remains severely recessed. Pops in mortgage activity along the way over the past few years have all been met by fades occurring almost immediately after those occurrences:

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10Y Tightrope:

The bond market continues to be sacrificed, especially on the long-end - for short term benefits in equity and asset prices. This level has brought about several different ‘growth scares’ each times it’s been reached - reflecting in everything from mortgage activity to equity repricing:

Firing Powell…?

Remains very unlikely for now…