New Shiny Quant Toys/Sentiment + Economic Data + Vision Equity Research Desk Update + Meeting Tina Again...
New Cutting-Edge Toys from MacroEdge Vision Help us Track Sentiment, Update from our Equity Research Desk, Economic Propaganda Overview, and a Meeting With Miss Tina...
New Shiny Quant Toys + Let's Gauge the Sentiment (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)
Happy Sunday all -
We have a bunch of members from our team joining this evening for the weekly report so I will let them have the floor for much of this report.
As many of you know - we’re in full planning mode on our roll-off from the Substack platform and anticipate this to happen over a weekend sometime in the second half of May now as our own platform is completed. Those of you who are apart of Ozone now have access to the updated interface along with our social club & more.
As Six is piloting the rollout of our Vision Equity Research Desk - we were busy working on new indicators this weekend that give us all a better idea of where the markets are at. Going forward, this will tie in nicely with the overall economic discussion that we have every weekend.
All of these indicators will be updated bi-monthly and posted in the MacroEdge Vision Equity Research dashboard found in the portal. You can get access to the dashboard within Ozone at: MacroEdge.net/Ozone
Here’s an overview of the 19 drawdowns seen since the dataset began for our new long-term bullishness gauge which uses a weighted average and 3-month moving average to track overall market sentiment across time. While the indicator struggled during the 90s to capture the bull run then - of late, for the last 5 instances a time of ‘euphoria’ has been seen -
While investors may remain euphoric for long periods (ie: prior to the Dotcom bust as well as in late 2004) - our more recent time frame paints an interesting picture of where sentiment currently stands. People are quite bullish and optimistic about the market, rather than the other way around (and contrary to what many permabulls seem to think at the current time). While we will take all of these indicators with pause and deliberation, all three of them are starting to paint a clearer picture of what might lie ahead for a larger correction or drawdown in the quarters to come:
Our new Full Market View Bullishness Gauge with data back to 1987:
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