Weekly Macro Note: A Week of Japanese Data, Inflation Readings, JOLTS, History, & More

In this MacroEdge Weekly Macro Note - Don and John dive into historical data, present data, risks and more to decipher the evolving risk landscape in a market quite different from 23-24. #MacroEdge

A Week of Japanese Data, Shifted Data, Inflation Readings, and More (@DonMiami3, MacroEdge Chief Economist)

Good Sunday evening, MacroEdge Readers and Community,

This evening we’ll have a short update on things to look out for this week, as well as an update on the current technical situation in markets. As the afternoon has progressed, we’ve seen the Yen strengthen back towards the 147 level, a bearish development that sent the most speculative assets like crypto tumbling, and pushed futures lower at the open—they have now recovered slightly. We’ll have our next MacroEdge Vision update available tomorrow evening or Midweek in the Midweek Macro Note, and Six’s updates are posted as they’re made on our X account for MacroEdge Vision at @MacroEdgeVision. 

The move tonight isn’t of great importance for the week in my opinion but it does set the continued risk narrative remaining around the Yen and the Bank of Japan. While there’s tons of talk around tariffs and the risks they may or may not present, the Yen and JP10Y continue to hold pole position in our risk matrix and warrant the closest monitoring. If the Yen weakens to start the week - this overnight ‘spook’ may turn into fuel for a broader risk asset rally, given where short term technicals and sentiment currently stand (however, I’ve explained much more on my opinion in ‘Standing on K2’). 

More exciting updates are coming this week about our first RESights data for select markets as well as an update on Trident - a division of MacroEdge Vision that is currently in a planning stage. Keep an eye out for those as well. From a data standpoint in the US this week - it’s both an inflation and employment week - with the delayed JOLTS report being released this week - instead of last due to data adjustments. In addition to that, the full view of American data this week is below: 

> Monday: Consumer Inflation Exp - NY Fed 

> Tuesday: JOLTS 

> Wednesday: CPI 

> Thursday: PPI and Jobless Claims 

> Friday: UMich Inflation Expectations 

Let’s dive into the data and details.